dsfdsfAt present, the production capacity is expected to be put in, the supply pressure still exists, and the downstream demand is OK under the stimulation of high profits, but it is already at a high level, so it is difficult to provide further support, which also makes the depolarization of port inventory difficult to sustain. It is suggested that eb2101 should arrange empty orders at 6200-6300 yuan / T. If the upstream unit shutdown increases significantly or the port inventory is greatly depleted, the empty bill will leave the site gradually.
Weak rise of pure benzene and limited cost support
From the main raw materials, pure benzene accounts for about 70% of the cost of styrene, and the impact of pure benzene on the price of styrene is very important. In recent years, the price of pure benzene has basically changed with the trend of crude oil. The spot price of East China market is about 3400 yuan / ton, which is still at a relatively low level. The main reason is that the downstream demand for pure benzene is weak and difficult to change. In addition to styrene and phenol, other downstream starts are generally below 80%, which also makes the port inventory in East China remain high around 260000 tons, about 140000 tons higher than the same period in history To suppress the price rise. According to our estimation, the current cash flow cost of the non integrated ethylbenzene dehydrogenation process is 5300-5400 yuan / ton, which is a drag on the continuous rise of styrene.
Production capacity is coming, supply pressure is increasing
From the perspective of stock supply, although the upstream profit was poor in September, the start-up remained around 85%, which was at a high level in the same period of three years. The main reason is that under the background of capacity expansion, long-term shutdown will make enterprises face the risk of customer loss. Therefore, under the condition of acceptable cash flow cost, styrene plants are more inclined to maintain higher start-up, leading to an increase in stock supply. Especially after the double festival, the price of styrene has been greatly increased to around 6000 yuan / ton, and the upstream profit is expected to reach 700 yuan / ton, reaching the high level in nearly half a year. Under the stimulation of high profit, upstream start-up is expected to further improve. Although it is reported from the market that there are maintenance plans in November for the Liszt and Secco styrene plants, it is still to be seen whether they can be put into operation under the current high profits.
Judging from the commissioning progress, the 350000 T / a styrene unit of Baolai Petrochemical was put into operation in September, with the current load of about 60%, and the start-up is expected to gradually increase. However, Anhui Jiaxi 350000 t unit, Tangshan Xuyang 300000 t unit and CNOOC shell phase II 630000 t unit (adopting PO / SM co production process) are expected to be put into operation before December, with a total capacity of more than 1.2 million tons, and the expected increase in supply is still expected.
Inventory has declined, the overall is still high
From the perspective of inventory situation, the port inventory has been significantly reduced due to the delay of partial arrival of styrene during the double festival period and the active replenishment of downstream factories. According to incomplete statistics, Jiangsu's social stock of styrene is 265300 tons, a decrease of 26700 tons compared with September 28; there are 247800 tons in the commodity warehouse, with a month on month decrease of 20200 tons; the current total stock of styrene in the mainstream reservoir area of South China is 32500 tons, which is 9000 tons less than that on September 28; the commodity warehouse is 17500 tons, 6200 tons less than September 28, a total decline of 35700 tons, which greatly improves Market sentiment.
As for whether it can continue to go to the warehouse in the later stage, judging from the balance sheet of supply and demand, with the release of Jiaxi and Xuyang in Anhui and the gradual increase of load in Baolai, Liaoning, the output in October is expected to increase by 50000 tons, reaching about 950000 tons, while the demand is expected to remain near 1180000 tons. Even if the import volume in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, the overall supply in October will slightly exceed the demand After the festival market, the future situation of going to the warehouse is still not optimistic.
The downstream demand is fair, and the promotion space is limited
From the start of the downstream operation, considering that EPS is mainly used in the field of foam packaging and sheet materials, it has a relatively obvious peak season. With the cold weather in the north, it started or slipped around November, while the downstream demand for PS and ABS was mainly in the household appliances and electronics industries. The seasonality was not so obvious, with the PS operating rate reaching 81%, which was 10 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. Suyaside PS plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance for one month in October, and Shanghai Secco plans to stop for 45 days on November 15, which may have a certain impact on the start-up of PS. ABS industry has been driven by the surge in demand for helmets, and has basically maintained full load operation since the third quarter.
From the perspective of profit, driven by the falling price of upstream raw materials, and boosted by favorable factors such as stopping the import of waste plastics, the profits of the three downstream products in the third quarter were still considerable, of which the average profit of EPS was more than 1200 yuan / ton, that of PS was more than 2000 yuan / ton, and that of ABS was higher. However, due to the old equipment and high load, it was difficult to start construction in the future Further improvement.
Conclusion and operation
On the whole, during the double festival, the port inventory went beyond expectations, which greatly boosted the market sentiment. However, the production capacity in the fourth quarter is still expected, and the supply pressure is still there. Although the downstream demand is OK under the stimulation of high profits, it has been at a high level and it is difficult to provide further support, which also makes it difficult for the port inventory to continue to be removed. It is suggested that eb2101 arrange empty orders at 6200-6300 yuan / T. If the upstream device shutdown increases significantly or the port inventory drops substantially Turn, then empty single gradually leave the field to wait and see.